19 timezones

And. . . we're back!

We'll have loads and loads of commentary and clever things to write coming soon. For now you can peruse a couple of our Picasa albums. Kennet divided them up into three categories:

• Best of
• B-sides
• Snapshots

More soon. . .

It seems that anyone with an opinion can be an expert

(Warning, this post is all text and no pictures).

I guess I'll voice my opinion, and see if anyone ever calls me an expert.

Here's a Seattle Times article, just one of a steady stream on the Seattle housing market, and the national market at large.

The bullet points are:

• Number of homes sold went down
• Number of homes on the market went up
• Median price went up

They cite an analyst, Glenn Crellin, who claims that the shift toward a buyer's market caused people to buy more house, hence the increase in home price.

To me, this explanation is a load of hooey.

1. It carries the testable prediction that the average size, or quality of homes went up. They don't report if that's true. It seems like a key piece of evidence that would be screamed from the rooftops if it were true.
2. The claim just doesn't make sense. It might make sense if home size/quality went up at a flat median price. Instead, they're claiming that many home buyer's have the train of thought: "Wow, homes are cheaper than I anticipated! They're so cheap I think I'll blow my budget on one." ...
   
   huh?

I'll propose an alternate theory. I have no idea if it's true but it makes a bit of sense. In the interest of full disclosure I'll freely admit that this theory fits with what I want to believe.

The housing market is not entirely composed of rational and informed individuals. I don't know the percentages, but a significant number of players in the housing market are poorly informed, misinformed, or just plain irrational. If you want examples, look at all the human-interest stories about sub-prime loans. They invariably feature idiots who make $35k a year with 4 kids, "buying" a $300k house.

The three bullet points above can be explained by the actions of two separate groups of rational and irrational players in the market.

• Rational home owners see that the market is going to go negative sometime soon. Those with the right circumstances are trying to sell their homes now. In a market, you haven't actually made money until you cash-out. They're trying to cash out, hence the glut of homes on the market.
• Rational home buyers aren't buying right now.
• Uninformed or irrational buyers are still buying. This group intersects with people who either buy too much house and/or pay too much for what they buy.

In short, the average sale price went up not because prices went up, but because bargain hunters aren't buying.

Buried inside this argument is an important statistical truth that is often lost on people. Comparing means requires comparing similar groups. If groups aren't matched, a difference in means may reflect a difference in sampling bias. If you eliminate bargain hunters from the market, the average sale price will "go up," but only because you've changed your sample group, not because values actually went up.

Keeping things scientific, here are a couple of testable predictions (that I won't bother to test):

• Home purchases by successful real-estate speculators have gone down.
• Demographics of home buyers have shifted (which really is a broader version of the first prediction).
  

Return of the vegetarians

Well, we seem to have a MAJOR aphid infestation in our sprightly little garden. There are at least 3 kinds of aphids, first they took over the older leaves of the parsley, then the oregano, finally the peas and the lettuce. So I did my first real harvest and we'll have one tiny salad total for dinner tonight. The peas are just flowering, but the lower leaves are all dying, presumably because of the bugs. Same with the sage. Hopefully the onions will still be good in a week or two and we'll be able to eat those.

But it was a good experiment. Rachel says I might just start over, but since I'll be gone for almost six weeks, it doesn't seem totally worthwhile. Won't they just come back??

The countdown begins

Did you know we are spending a month in East Africa this summer? Yikes, me neither. We leave three weeks from the day after tomorrow (three weeks!) and yikes. Still a lot of work to do, both work work and life work, to get ready for being gone for that long and for the logistics of multiple countries. Last Friday I had 4 needles stuck in my arm and 4 bottles of pills sent home with me. This is just the beginning! Check out this google map I made of our trip. You may have to use the hand tool to scroll down a bit to see the whole thing (just like in a pdf), I can't get it to center. It's basic, but we'll be doing some good postings hopefully while we're gone and definitely when we get back.

Above is Mt. Meru in Tanzania, where we will be trekking. For more reading, go here. Below is the topo.

Spring Projects

I made these lemon custard cakes a few days ago- very light and lemony and super easy. The recipe came from this great cookbook my sister sent me for my birthday- I didn't even know it existed though I've been getting the magazine religiously for a couple years now. Beautiful photographs which I like because then I know what it's supposed to look like.

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In other news, I've been busy with small birthday and mother's day gifts. After ordering and returning a small coin purse from an unnamed company, I got a little obsessed with trying to create them myself. The zipper on the one I returned was put in with very little thought, did not line up at the end and didn't even close all the way. So thanks to the Denyse Schmidt book, I've made about 6 of these. I also saw these tape measure purses in Ballard- blatantly stole the design. . .








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In garden news: take a look at how things are growing! We have a bit of an aphid problem, but they don't seem to actually be killing anything. Scott told me (in so many words) that I probably traumatized the plants a little in their migration across from the island. But they still look edible don't they? I love those peas- probably my favorite. Those are the today's photos on top and the lettuce about a month ago.

A rebuttal

Well, now I feel compelled to point out the other side of Bike to Work day, if nothing else than to separate myself from my co-blogger's well-intentioned, but incomplete theories. On one hand he has a point, but I think he neglects a very important aspect that I witnessed many times this week. Biking to work in the scheme of the whole world can be very scary for some people; it's just too big a scale in their minds. Having May 18= Bike to Work Day gives people something to shoot for, puts in on their radar, and makes it less scary. Having one day designated specially gets the word out and gives people an opportunity to put their butt on the line by trying something new, in a semi-supportive environment. While it may not sway the non-believers, it will give those of us who are a little more timid that push we need.

Also, I heard complaining today from other regular cyclists. Yes, it can be slightly annoying to have more people on the road, riding slowly and taking up space. I think, though, that this has more to do with the fact that our transportation infrastructure isn't built for it. Don't blame the riders.

So there.

Springtime: when a young man's fancy turns to robots

After my last two posts, which consisted entirely of words, a certain unnamed co-contributor to this blog informed me that I am to be seen and not heard. In that spirit, I'll go back to my usual role of providing pretty pictures. However, in my own form of civil disobedience I'm going to show only the most saccharine, nauseatingly cute pictures this post. Take that.

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First on the block is a young robot, Gordian "Gordie" Knot. He looks sinister but don't let that fool you, he has a heart of gold (That's not strictly true. His heart is actually a muon-catalyzed cold-fusion reactor, but his emotion simulation unit has gold plated leads).


Gordie and Earl are basically inseparable now, as evidenced by this soft-focus, vomit-inducingly cuddly bit of portraiture.


Ok, I have to stop posting photos of Gordie and Earl now. It's as bad as, possibly worse than, girls who blog about their cats.

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My big development in the last couple of months is my shiny (actually matte) new Pentax K10D. After a hiatus, I'm getting back into the world of SLRs. This isn't a total switch from my trusty FZ-50. The FZ-50 is still my camera of choice for kayaking photography, given its small size and the versatility of its lens. However, the Pentax provides absolutely wonderful picture quality if you're willing to do the legwork. Unfortunately, I haven't had a whole lot of subject matter recently, but here's a good example of what the K10d can do with a 43mm F1.9 prime.

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Finally, I'd like to end this incoherent rambling with yet more incoherent rambling. Today was "Bike to Work Day." This meant that on my morning ride I probably saw about 5x as many people as normal on the trails and streets. This is good. However, I'd like to ask the question, "Where are these people every other day of the year?" I suspect it boils down to one of two possibilities:

1. All of these people normally bike to work with some regularity. They just made a concerted effort to bike to work today, creating the illusion that many more people than usual are biking to work.


2. "Bike to Work Day" creates a false dichotomy in peoples' minds. May 18th = Bike to Work Day. Every day that's not May 18th = Drive to Work Day (I bet I can think of some corporate sponsors for that).

My general cynicism tells me that the latter is more likely the case. Biking to work one day a year is good. Biking to work more than one day a year is better.